Persistent Thunderstorms Continue Across Northern California, Southern Oregon

Medford, Oregon- Northern California and southern Oregon are experiencing an extended stretch of active thunderstorms, with Friday bringing another round of intense lightning activity to Modoc and Siskiyou counties.

According to data from the National Lightning Detection Network, approximately 775 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes were recorded across the region Friday. The Earth Networks Total Lightning Network registered nearly 4,000 total lightning flashes, continuing a multi-day streak of significant thunderstorm activity.

Though storm coverage is expected to ease slightly Saturday, conditions remain unstable. The Storm Prediction Center’s High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) model indicates a 20 to 30 percent chance of cloud-to-ground lightning in Modoc County — a notable decrease from previous days.

Storms are expected to be slow-moving once again, increasing the likelihood of wetting rains beneath storm cores. Forecasts near Alturas (KAAT) show precipitable water values around 0.65 inches, supporting localized downpours under thunderstorm cells.

Looking ahead, thunderstorm chances remain high. Forecast models are showing renewed development Sunday afternoon and evening across northern California and areas east of the Cascades. While activity appears more scattered, data suggests a 30 to 50 percent probability of cloud-to-ground lightning. Southerly flow at 10 to 15 knots may aid in slightly faster storm movement.

Next week could bring an even more sustained thunderstorm pattern. Models continue to highlight daily thunderstorm potential from Monday through Thursday, driven by persistent troughing over the Pacific Northwest — an unusually long stretch of convective activity for the region.

Of particular interest is the potential for nocturnal thunderstorms Wednesday night. About 40 percent of ensemble members from the weather model show overnight convection developing somewhere over Oregon, with a few extending into the Portland and Boise forecast areas.