Thunderstorms, and Fire Weather Conditions Expected to Continue Across Southern Oregon

Lightning storms southern Oregon — *Courtesy: NWS Medford*

Medford, Oregon- A shifting weather pattern will bring increased thunderstorm chances, breezy afternoon conditions, and elevated fire concerns across parts of Southern Oregon and Northern California through midweek, before substantial heat returns by the weekend.

Morning temperatures Tuesday began warmer across much of the west side, with lows in the 60s, but afternoon highs are expected to be slightly cooler than Monday’s. A low-pressure system near San Francisco is moving toward Southern Oregon, ushering in gustier afternoon winds and the possibility of thunderstorms.

The highest risk for storms Tuesday afternoon is focused on northern Klamath and Lake counties, where chances range from 25% to 35%. A broader swath extending southwest into Siskiyou County also carries a 15% to 25% chance of storms.

The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning from 2 to 11 p.m. Tuesday for areas north of the Sprague River Valley and northwest of Abert Rim, citing the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over dry fuels.

On Wednesday, a secondary trough will push the offshore low onto land, sustaining thunderstorm chances across southeastern portions of the region. The highest potential lies from Modoc County northeastward into southern Lake County and eastern Klamath County.

As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for southeastern FWZ 624 and the southern portion of FWZ 625 from 2 to 8 p.m. Wednesday. The watch warns of abundant lightning on critically dry fuels. Weather models suggest thunderstorm activity will taper off quickly Wednesday evening as the trough moves east.

Following the system’s exit, drier westerly winds are expected to return Wednesday night, ending the thunder risk. Inland areas may see slight cooling Wednesday and Thursday, but warm northeast winds are likely to elevate temperatures along the south coast.

Looking ahead, a ridge of high pressure will build over the region heading into the weekend, bringing a renewed surge of heat. Medford faces a 70% to 90% chance of temperatures reaching 100 degrees from Friday through early next week. Conditions are expected to remain dry during this period, with typical late-day breezes and poor to moderate overnight humidity recovery, heightening fire weather concerns into the weekend.