Warm Days Give Way to Heavy Rain and Mountain Snow by Friday

Medford, Oregon- Southern Oregon’s stretch of calm, dry weather is about to end. The National Weather Service says a strong fall storm will bring widespread rain, gusty winds, and mountain snow beginning late Thursday night and continuing through the weekend.

Today remains the warmest day of the week, with highs in Medford and other west side valleys reaching the mid to upper 70s—roughly five to ten degrees above average for late October. East of the Cascades, temperatures are topping out in the mid 60s to low 70s. A weak ridge of high pressure is keeping skies mostly clear for now, but that will shift quickly as a cold front approaches from the Pacific.

Rain is expected to reach the Oregon coast late Thursday night before spreading inland through Friday morning. The system will bring steady, widespread rainfall across the Rogue Valley, Umpqua Valley, and much of Northern California, lasting through Friday night.

Forecast models show the heaviest rainfall along the coast and over higher terrain, including Curry and Coos Counties, the Siskiyou Mountains, the Mount Shasta region, and the southern Oregon Cascades. Those areas are forecast to receive 1 to 2 inches of rain, with localized totals over 3 inches possible in the coastal mountains of Curry County.

Interior valleys—including the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois Valleys—can expect 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall, which will help boost soil moisture and stream levels after a dry start to the fall season. In Medford, around half an inch of total rainfall is expected by late Friday, though some heavier showers could locally push amounts higher.

Forecasters say periods of moderate to heavy rain are likely through the day Friday, especially during the morning and early afternoon hours. Road spray, localized ponding, and reduced visibility could make for slower travel during those times. While flooding is not expected, urban drainage systems and small streams may see brief rises.

Southwesterly winds will also increase as the front moves through, particularly along the coast and over higher elevations. Winds funneling through the Shasta Valley may become gusty Friday afternoon into early Saturday, though forecasters say widespread advisory-level winds are not currently anticipated.

Snow levels will remain above 7,000 feet through Friday, keeping precipitation in the form of rain for most locations. However, as cooler air settles in this weekend, snow levels will drop to around 5,500 feet Saturday and near 4,500 feet Sunday, bringing accumulating snow to the Cascades and possibly affecting higher-elevation travel routes.

By Sunday night, total snowfall of 12 to 18 inches is possible along the Cascade crest, with a 50–70% chance of amounts exceeding 18 inches in some areas. Western Siskiyou County and other higher-elevation terrain east of the Cascades could see 2 to 6 inches of accumulation.

Forecasters expect this wet, unsettled pattern to continue into early next week, with additional rounds of precipitation possible. More detailed rainfall and snow forecasts are expected later this week as higher-resolution data becomes available.