Medford Unveils 20-Year Economic Strategy Citing Strong Land Supply, Targeted Growth Goals

Medford, Oregon- The City of Medford is preparing for a significant update to its long-range economic policies with the release of a new Economic Opportunity Analysis (EOA) that projects steady job growth, identifies more than adequate land supplies for employment uses, and highlights several strategic challenges the city must address to meet its development goals over the next 20 years.

The draft report, prepared by Community Attributes Inc. and funded in part by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, fulfills a state requirement under Oregon’s Land Use Planning Goal Nine. It updates Medford’s last EOA completed in 2007 and will form the technical foundation for amendments to the city’s Comprehensive Plan, particularly the Economic Element, goals, and implementation strategies. A Land Development Committee review is scheduled for Aug. 27.

Employment Forecast and Land Demand

The EOA projects that Medford’s total employment within its urban growth boundary will increase by about 11,408 jobs between 2025 and 2045, representing a 22 percent growth rate. This increase will bring total employment to more than 62,000 jobs by the end of the forecast period. Health care, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and construction are expected to account for the largest gains, while the finance, insurance, and real estate sector is forecast to grow the fastest.

To support this growth, the city will require an estimated 604 acres of additional employment land — 363 acres for commercial development and 261 acres for industrial uses. Medford’s current inventory contains more than 1,200 acres of vacant, buildable land zoned for employment, well above projected demand.

While overall supply is sufficient, the report notes that only 20 percent of the inventory meets Oregon’s benchmark for “short-term” development readiness, falling short of the state’s 25 percent target. This measure reflects parcels that have infrastructure and site conditions in place to allow construction to begin within one year. Shortages are especially notable for very small service-commercial sites under half an acre and mid-sized industrial parcels between one and five acres.

Economic Role and Demographic Trends

Medford serves as the Rogue Valley’s primary employment hub, with a jobs-to-housing ratio of 1.35 in 2023, significantly higher than the state average of 1.08. The city’s workforce of more than 51,000 includes a large share of commuters from surrounding communities, with 63 percent of workers living outside the city.

Population growth in Medford has outpaced most of the region since 2020, partly driven by residents displaced by the 2020 Almeda Fire relocating into the city. In 2024, the population was estimated at 88,585. Median household income reached $70,500 in 2023, slightly below the Jackson County average. Housing affordability remains a challenge, with 38 percent of households spending more than 30 percent of their income on housing. Cost burdens are significantly higher for renters, more than half of whom are in this category.

Strategic Themes and Development Priorities

The report identifies six strategic themes for guiding policy:

• Downtown as an Economic Anchor: Encouraging catalytic mixed-use projects such as a conference center with integrated residential and retail uses, alongside increased housing density to support downtown businesses.

• Addressing Workforce Gaps: Expanding educational and training capacity in healthcare and skilled trades, and improving childcare access to help retain talent.

• Gateway and Branding Initiatives: Enhancing the city’s visual identity through improved entry corridors, signage, and beautification projects along Riverside Avenue, Biddle Road, and the Bear Creek Greenway.

• Unified Economic Vision: Establishing a clear identity, whether as a medical hub, technology center, or sports tourism destination, to align investments across public and private sectors.

• Housing Affordability Strategies: Increasing the supply of workforce and middle-income housing near employment centers, and exploring changes to state laws that limit condominium development.

• Improving Site Readiness: Targeting infrastructure investments to bring key parcels to market-ready status and moving toward the state’s 25 percent short-term supply goal.

Climate and Resiliency Considerations

The EOA incorporates findings from the city’s Climate Change Adaptation and Resiliency Plan and Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan, which identify wildfire, drought, and extreme heat as the highest-probability hazards. These risks pose threats to the city’s economic stability, particularly in sectors like tourism, agriculture, and outdoor recreation. Infrastructure and policy measures aimed at mitigating these risks are expected to be integral to long-term economic planning.

Next Steps in Adoption

The Aug. 27 Land Development Committee meeting will serve as the first formal review of the draft report and proposed policy amendments. Following input from committee members and partner agencies, city planners will finalize updates to the Comprehensive Plan’s Economic Element for City Council consideration later this year.

If adopted, the updated EOA will guide Medford’s land use and infrastructure investment decisions for the next two decades, shaping how the city accommodates growth, manages development readiness, and positions itself within the regional economy.