The Rum Creek Fire is burning in rugged terrain along the south banks of the Lower Rogue River and is currently at 1,256 acres.
Yesterday, warm weather and vertical mixing promoted active fire behavior with some spotting. This weekend, cooler temperatures will dampen fire behavior and provide an opportunity for increased suppression efforts.
Warming and drying trends with gustier afternoon winds are expected early next week, making tactical decisions over the next 24-48 hrs important. These operations will produce additional smoke for a short period of time; however, they are essential to limit fire spread during more active fire weather periods predicted into next week.
Today, another active fire weather day will produce smoke. The main plume will loft to the south, impacting Cave Junction. Increased evening wind will send smoke southeast, which will settle into low laying areas in the vicinity of the fire and drain along Galice Road, into Galice, Merlin, and Grants Pass.
Cooler weather will bring low laying clouds late Friday into Saturday, decreasing mixing and allowing for smoke accumulation in each of the valleys downwind of the fire, including the Illinois Valley, Applegate Valley, and Middle Rogue River Valley. Periods of Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups concentrations are possible overnight and should disperse by late afternoon Saturday. Daily overnight smoke will continue to pool in low laying areas downwind of the fire. With increasing temperatures and vertical mixing expected by Monday, daily ventilation of smoke will improve and Good to Moderate overall conditions are expected by early next week.