MEDFORD, Ore. (May. 10, 2026) — Southern Oregon and portions of Northern California are expected to experience several days of unusually warm temperatures through early next week before a shifting weather pattern brings the potential for strong winds, showers and possibly thunderstorms by midweek, according to the National Weather Service.
Forecasters say a high-pressure ridge lingering over the region is driving temperatures well above normal for May, particularly inland west of the Cascades. Highs Saturday are expected to reach the mid-80s to low 90s in the Rogue, Illinois and Umpqua valleys, while communities east of the Cascades climb into the low 80s. Coastal areas are expected to remain milder, with highs generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.
The warmup comes as much of Oregon continues to face increasingly dry conditions heading into wildfire season. Although fire season has not yet been declared in Southwest Oregon, state officials have already warned of elevated wildfire risk this summer due to drought conditions and an expected hotter-than-normal season.
A weak dry front moving through the Pacific Northwest on Sunday is expected to provide temporary relief west of the Cascades. Temperatures in Medford and surrounding valleys are forecast to cool back into the 70s, while the Oregon coast dips into the mid- to upper 60s.
However, forecasters say the cooldown will likely be short-lived.
A stronger upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the region Monday and Tuesday, sending temperatures back above seasonal averages across Southern Oregon and Northern California. Inland temperatures are expected to run 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year.
West-side valleys are forecast to climb back into the mid-80s and low 90s early next week, while areas east of the Cascades could reach the upper 80s. Along the coast, temperatures may remain roughly 10 degrees above average before marine clouds return Tuesday.
Meteorologists are also monitoring a developing low-pressure system expected to approach the region during the middle of the week. The system could bring gusty winds beginning Tuesday afternoon, particularly in the Shasta Valley, southern Rogue Valley and parts of Southern Oregon east of the Cascades.
The National Weather Service said there is a moderate chance that winds in the Shasta Valley could become strong enough to meet advisory criteria. Other inland areas face lower chances for stronger gusts, mainly across exposed terrain in Modoc, Lake and Klamath counties.
Forecast confidence decreases later Wednesday because computer weather models continue to disagree on the exact path and timing of the storm system.
One scenario would bring the low-pressure center directly across Southern Oregon earlier in the day, increasing cloud cover and scattered showers while limiting thunderstorm development. Another model tracks the system farther south and later into Wednesday, a setup that could allow for greater daytime heating and a better chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
The uncertainty has created a wide range in projected temperatures. Forecast guidance currently places Medford’s possible Wednesday high anywhere between the mid-70s and low 90s.
Despite uncertainty surrounding the midweek forecast, weather models are in stronger agreement that a broader cooling trend will settle across the Pacific Northwest late next week. By next weekend, temperatures across Southern Oregon could fall back to near or slightly below normal for mid-May.
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