The coming week is forecasted to be very wet in some Southern Oregon counties, including Josephine County, and will be dominated by two atmospheric river systems that will bring moderate to heavy rain through the area.
The first system will bring 3 to 4 inches of rain from Thursday through much of Friday. The second system will roughly double the rain at 5 to 7 inches from Sunday into Tuesday.
The snow level will rise briefly during both atmospheric rivers which means that there will be rain falling on the low to mid-elevation snow. This could lead to rapid snow melt causing small stream flooding, standing water in Coos and Curry counties, and in the Illinois Valley in Josephine County. This is also expected to cause rises to near action stage on the Coquille River at Myrtle Point.
While the threat of small stream flooding may be present as both systems pass through, the first system has a lower chance as it may serve more to warm up the snowpack whereas the second system brings heavier rainfall and will be a bit warmer and could cause more widespread impacts from standing water and small stream flooding.
A flood potential outlook is issued when there is the potential for significant rises or flooding along rivers and streams.
The exact scenario for flooding remains uncertain. Officials say that watches and warnings may be issued by the National Weather Service if this situation worsens.
Source: NWS Medford