MEDFORD, Ore. (Jul. 11, 2026) — Fire weather concerns will remain high across portions of Southern Oregon and Northern California through the weekend as a combination of strong winds, critically low humidity and dry fuels creates dangerous conditions for rapid wildfire growth, according to the National Weather Service.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through Sunday evening for Modoc County in Northern California, southeast Klamath County and southwest Lake County in Oregon, where forecasters say the most critical conditions are expected.
The National Weather Service said southwest to west winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts reaching 40 mph in some locations Saturday, will combine with afternoon humidity levels falling into the low teens and even single digits. Those conditions are expected to create the highest wildfire danger of the weekend.
Saturday is forecast to be the most hazardous day, with stronger winds, lower humidity and more widespread critical fire weather conditions across the East Side and Modoc Plateau. While conditions are expected to improve slightly Sunday as winds weaken and humidity recovers modestly, forecasters said critical fire weather conditions are still expected during the afternoon and evening hours.
Overnight humidity recovery will provide some relief, ranging from good Saturday morning to moderate Sunday and Monday mornings, but those gains are expected to diminish quickly each afternoon.
Although the Red Flag Warning is limited to portions of the region, officials warned that dry vegetation and gusty winds extend beyond the warning area, increasing the potential for fires to ignite and spread rapidly elsewhere. Residents are urged to avoid activities that could spark a wildfire, including dragging trailer chains, using equipment that produces sparks or leaving campfires unattended.
The dangerous fire weather is being driven by a weather pattern featuring a trough moving down the Canadian coast and high pressure over the Four Corners region. The resulting pressure gradient is producing persistent southwest winds while maintaining warm, dry air across Southern Oregon and Northern California.
Looking ahead, forecasters are monitoring the potential for isolated thunderstorms early next week as monsoonal moisture moves into the region. A slight chance of thunderstorms develops Monday across southeastern Modoc County before expanding Tuesday into Lake and eastern Klamath counties, with isolated storms also possible in western Siskiyou County and southern Jackson County.
While thunderstorm chances remain relatively low, any lightning strikes could present new wildfire concerns given the dry landscape. Tuesday currently appears to have the greatest potential for thunderstorm development.
Beyond Tuesday, forecast models indicate warm and dry weather will continue through the remainder of next week, though lighter winds are expected to reduce widespread critical fire weather conditions.
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